Synthesis of Predictive Models for Start-up Companies

Abstract: A quantitative research is performed to improve the accuracy of a previously derived model for predicting the success of Bulgarian start-up companies. The preceding research stages include an overview and analysis of older success prediction models, creation of a new abstract success prediction model, a venture creation process model, a qualitative and a quantitative research. The dataset is extended with 31 more cases and is analyzed in higher detail using the IBM SPSS Modeler software. The previously derived models are compared to the new ones in terms of accuracy of the success prediction and the predicting variables.

Authors: Yankov, B. Continue reading “Synthesis of Predictive Models for Start-up Companies”

Start-up Companies Predictive Models Analysis

Abstract: A quantitative research is performed to derive a model for predicting the success of Bulgarian start-up companies. The preceding research stages included an overview and analysis of older success prediction models, a new abstract success prediction model, a venture creation process model and a qualitative research. The abstract success prediction model is extended with measurable variables which are included in a survey. The survey is currently in progress with 105 responses by owners and managers of Bulgarian companies. The current dataset was analyzed using the IBM SPSS Modeler software which automatically tests different models and suggests the best performing ones. The best derived model is a decision tree model that predicts the success of the start-up companies from the dataset with 91,86% probability using 11 variables.

Authors: Yankov, B., Haralampiev, K., Ruskov P. Continue reading “Start-up Companies Predictive Models Analysis”

Изследване на успеха на стартиращи компании

Питате ли се, какъв е шансът един стартиращ бизнес да успее?

Попълнете анкетата за стартиращи компании

Business Success or FailКакви качества трябва да притежават предприемачите, за да създадат успешната фирма? Ако знаете кои са слабите места на Вашата компания и кои са най-силните и предимства, дали това ще Ви помогне да успеете в бизнеса?
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Research of Success Factors for Start-up Companies

Abstract: A new venture success prediction model is proposed based on an overview and analysis of success prediction models, analysis of the venture creation process, and a qualitative research – interviews with company owners. The success prediction model is extended with measurable variables. A survey to statistically validate the success prediction model is currently in progress with 68 responses by owners and managers of Bulgarian companies. A brief profile of the enterprises and their owners are presented. The available data is analyzed with IBM SPSS Statistics and shows a correlation of the company success and the success prediction model variables.

Authors: Yankov, B. Continue reading “Research of Success Factors for Start-up Companies”

A Model for Predicting the Success of New Ventures

Abstract: After an overview of more than 50 success prediction models for new ventures and identification of success factors and successful model patterns, and analysis of the venture creation process, a model for predicting the success of new ventures is proposed. The success prediction model is extended with measurable variables. Interviews with company owners are conducted to gather initial opinions, to identify possible gaps and to revise the model. Initial results and feedback from the interviews are presented, analyzed and compared to the model to draw conclusions and to make improvements. A survey to statistically validate the success prediction model is currently in progress.

Authors: Yankov, B. Continue reading “A Model for Predicting the Success of New Ventures”

Overview of Success Prediction Models for New Ventures

Abstract:  An overview of 42 success prediction models for new ventures is presented. Major success factors are identified and a sequence of development of models is analyzed. A successful model pattern is identified containing industry structure, company strategy and interaction of strategy with structure. Alternative success prediction models are presented. A venture creation process and system models are analyzed. A new venture creation process model is proposed and utilized to analyze existing models. Common venture creation barriers and strategies to minimizing their impact on start-up companies are presented. Best practices for designing success prediction models are identified.

Authors: Yankov, B. Continue reading “Overview of Success Prediction Models for New Ventures”